Q3 report highlights Miami’s real estate problems

by JAMES MCCLISTER

miami-south-florida-condo-douglas-real-estate-elliman

Douglas Elliman released its Q3 report for the Greater Miami real estate market today, and it made two things clear: affordability is a problem, and demand is sluggish for both single-family homes and condos.

The single-family side

Median single-family sales prices were up year-over-year in all but three of the Miami-Miami Beach-Boca Raton-area markets that Douglas Elliman analyzed. The widespread appreciation gives the impression of strong buyer interest; however, a look at sales and average days on market show a stark decline in demand. For instance, despite single-family prices in Coral Gables rising 14.2 percent year-over-year to $965,000, sales were down 10 percent, and average DOM took a huge, 100-plus percent leap from 52 days to 110.

The trend was common throughout the area:

Single-Family Prices and Sales

  Median Sales Price Median Sales Price YoY Change Sales Sales YoY
Boca Raton $414,950 5.70% 750 11.90%
Coconut Grove $877,500 -18.80% 20 -28.60%
Coral Gables $965,000 14.20% 125 -10.10%
Downtown $312,000 13.50% 1,801 -1.70%
Key Biscayne $3,378,000 18.50% 7 -46.20%
Miami Beach $1,750,000 22.60% 77 -27.40%
Miami Beach Islands $3,995,000 -22.90% 10 25%
Miami Proper $335,000 10.70% 2,110 -2.80%
Palmetto Bay $542,500 15.50% 86 6.20%
Pinecrest $1,105,000 4.40% 54 -6.90%
South Miami $510,000 -5.60% 21 -32.30%
Surfside $713,500 -3.60% 11 -26.70%

The condo side

The Miami area’s condo market is performing similar to the single-family side, although there is a nuance to pricing. Median prices are generally lower – which is consistent with condo pricing – but price depreciation is far more common. Ten of the 18 area markets in Douglas Elliman’s report showed slips in median price, and in five the declines were more than 20 percent.

The difference between the area’s condo and single-family markets is inventory. Throughout Greater Miami, condo construction has been rampant. Already, the city’s condo supply exceeds 11-months, and over the next few years, thousands more units are slated to come on to the market – all while sales and demand continue declining at rapid rates.

Condo Prices and Sales

  Median Sales Price Median Sales Price YoY Change Closed Sales Closed Sales YoY
Aventura $327,500 8.30% 238 -9.20%
Bal Harbour $487,500 -26.10% 22 -12%
Bay Harbor Islands $220,000 -22.80% 21 -22.20%
Boca Raton $196,000 9.50% 743 -3.90%
Brickell $382,000 -9.60% 200 -16%
Coconut Grove $574,000 -10.30% 24 -35.10%
Coral Gables $317,100 6.20% 77 16.70%
Downtown $185,000 0% 1285 -29.10%
Fisher Island $1,930,000 -24.30% 4 0%
Key Biscayne $872,500 -3.70% 36 -25%
Miami Beach $355,000 -2.70% 705 -15.50%
Miami Proper $222,400 2.30% 1840 -25.80%
Mid-Beach $385,000 -39.20% 80 433.30%
North Bay Village $202,625 -7.90% 38 -13.60%
North Beach $270,000 -46.50% 54 500%
South Beach $315,000 -3.10% 217 -7.30%
Sunny Isles $365,000 -3.30% 160 1.30%
Surfside $645,000 27.50% 11 -35.30%